Despite the best ever quarterly net profit of Rs 3,091 crore during April-June of financial year 2023-24 (Q1FY24), challenges are mounting for InterGlobe Aviation-run IndiGo in the near term, said analysts. Given this, most brokerages have retained their ratings from 'buy to underperform', as well as their target price for the stock. For instance, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has retained its 'neutral' rating on the scrip as it believes the low-cost airline is facing teething issues at present.
A likely turnaround in profitability margins in the March quarter (Q4FY23) will not be enough to lift the outlook for paint stocks due to volatile crude oil prices and rising competition in the sector, analysts say. Hence, they advise investors to avoid the sector over the short-to-medium term despite the heavy correction in the stocks since last year. Shares of Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Indigo Paints, Nerolac and Pidilite have shed 6-32 per cent over the last 6 months versus a 3 per cent rise in the benchmark Sensex.
After a record run in FY2022, when the brokerage industry is set to report over 30 per cent topline growth at around Rs 28,000 crore, the industry is set for a tepid growth next fiscal even though the outlook is stable, says a rating agency report. The market has been on a song since June 2020 when the first wave of the pandemic ebbed and since then it has had record run with the stock indices more than doubling since the Covid-19 mayhem in March 2020 and scaled new life-time highs since then. The market frenzy was also visible in the massive number of new investors coming to the equity market, as exemplified in the more than trebling of the demat accounts since April 2020.
UPL, the country's largest agrochemical company, had a weak July-September quarter (Q2), reporting a sharp fall in revenues across geographies. Overall, the revenues were down 19 per cent on the back of lower agrochemical prices and inventory destocking. While the overall volumes were down 7 per cent, prices fell by 15 per cent. Volume decline in the European market was on the back of high channel inventory and product bans while in India the fall by 27 per cent was on account of muted demand for segments such as cotton and pulses.
Notwithstanding expectations of a pick-up in construction activity during a seasonally strong January-March quarter (fourth quarter) of 2022-23 (FY23), analysts are cautiously optimistic about the building material sector - encompassing paints, pipes, wood panels, tiles, metals, and cement - as volatile input costs, coupled with fears of a global slowdown, are making demand projections uncertain. Against this backdrop, analysts suggest investors stay selective and pick stocks of companies with stronger brand recall, expanding distribution network, diversified product profile, healthier balance sheet, and sustainable cash flow. "The government's various proposals under Budget 2023-24 (FY24) may lead to the building material segment growing between 8 per cent and 12 per cent for the next five years.
2023 could be another volatile year for Indian equity markets, according to BofA. In a report, the brokerage pointed out that the Nifty50, at present, is trading at 20.7x against its long-term average of 18.8x one-year forward earnings of current Nifty constituents. Plus, India is trading at a 98 per cent premium to its emerging market (EM) peers against its long-term average of 45 per cent.
The impact of the banking crisis in the US was visible in IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) weak performance in the March quarter of fiscal 2023 (Q4FY23). The firm witnessed slower revenue growth in Q4FY23 and failed to meet its FY23 exit Ebit margin of 25 per cent as some clients, especially in the North American region, took to pausing projects and rising onsite costs offset utilisation gains. Sequentially, the company's revenue grew by just 0.6 per cent on a constant currency basis, which was one of the slowest paces in over 11 quarters.
Except for Westlife Foodworld (Westlife), a weak 2022-23 (FY23) January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter performance and a muted near-term outlook led to a downward revision of earnings estimates for quick-service restaurant (QSR) players. Brokerages have slashed estimates by as much as 10 per cent for 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25). The downward revisions have weighed on the performance of listed players, who have underperformed the market with low single-digit returns over the past month.
Titan Company on November 21, became the second Tata group firm to join Rs 3 trillion market capitalisation (market cap) club after its shares hit a new high of Rs 3,400, up nearly 2 per cent on the BSE in Tuesday's intra-day trade. At 12:28 PM; with a market cap of Rs 301,847 crore (Rs 3.02 trillion) Titan stood at number 16th position in overall market cap ranking on the BSE listed companies, the exchange data shows. Titan overtook paint company Asian Paints, which has a market cap of Rs 300,579 crore, data shows.
Capital goods companies in their Q2FY24 results are expected to report another steady quarter of earnings growth as order inflows and execution remain healthy, according to analysts. An upward revision in order inflow targets and a margin improvement due to lower raw material costs are also anticipated. "We expect the execution of all capital goods companies and most EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) companies to remain healthy Y-o-Y (year-on-year), led by strong order book accretion in the past 5-6 quarters," wrote analysts at Kotak Securities in a note, estimating revenue growth of 32 per cent for India's largest company in the capital goods space -- Larsen & Toubro.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
The two-wheeler sector has been underperforming its peers on the volumes front for over five quarters now. Even in the March quarter, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp posted a 17-24 per cent YoY decline in volumes, the sharpest in the listed auto universe. The ongoing impact of frequent price hikes, all-time high fuel prices, and muted rural sentiment has led to the lacklustre showing by two-wheeler makers. What has aggravated the situation for two-wheeler companies, which get almost all their sales from the internal combustion engine or ICE-based units, is the traction for electric two-wheelers (EV).
Since its results, the stock of bottling and beverage distribution company Varun Beverages (VBL) is up 7 per cent on the back of a strong 2022-23 January-March quarter performance, robust outlook, and revision in profit estimates. Given the sharp uptick, it is now part of the trillion-rupee club, with its market capitalisation at Rs 1.01 trillion. The stock is one of the best performers in the consumer space as well as the S&P BSE 200, of which it is a constituent.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
The gauge for the performance of informational technology (IT) stocks soared nearly 5 per cent-most in nearly three years-as growth worries eased following a robust order book posted by bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The Nifty IT index rose 4.5 per cent to close at 30,945. This was the biggest single-day gain since September 14, 2020. Industry titan TCS' shares rose 5 per cent to Rs 3,509.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
The recent equity market weakness has sobered up investor mood, but the coming festive season is keeping analysts upbeat on stocks related to the consumption basket. Among the lot, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer electronics segments are expected to do well over the next few months, and investors should thus selectively take bets in these pockets, analysts suggest. "We expect good volume growth for the FMCG sector during the festive season with some improvement in rural demand.
The correction seen in the stock markets thus far is insufficient and there are significant downside risks, given the way macroeconomic data is shaping up, a Nomura equity strategist said on Thursday. "The markets are trying to look through the current stress we see in the macros. There are potential risks to the market. "Our estimates assume no major impact on growth and earnings. "The market should have been at least 5 per cent lower than it is now.
The ongoing consolidation in equities would improve return prospects during the second half of 2021, an American brokerage said on Tuesday. Leading indicators relating to fundamentals including growth, stability, government policy and RBI policy, and corporate earnings are "generally positive" about equity returns, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. It can be noted that since the start of the second wave of COVID-19 infections, which also coincided with inflation worries in the US, there has been an uneasiness within investors. From its levels on March 10, the markets are down by nearly 3 per cent despite the late surge over the last two trading sessions.
Brokerages are expanding the universe of stocks they cover amid a boom in the market. Several stocks in the mid-cap universe are now tracked by more analysts than they were a year ago. For instance, SBI Cards and Payment Services is now tracked by 17 brokerages, compared to just four a year ago.
The sharp rally in the broader markets has propelled India's market capitalisation (m-cap) to a new high. The combined m-cap of all BSE-listed firms rose to Rs 291.9 trillion in intraday trade on Thursday before settling lower at Rs 290.9 trillion. The previous record was on December 14, 2022, at Rs 291.3 trillion.
After new-age tech companies reported better-than-expected June quarter (Q1FY23) results, analysts said it will be a long road to recovery for their respective businesses and the stock prices. Moreover, brokerages differ on whether it is the right time to own these stocks. The common thread, however, that runs across most brokerages is Zomato, where they suggest buying the stock with the one-year target price ranging between Rs 60 - 115, translating into an upside of around 9 - 109 per cent from the current levels. The company's gross order value (GOV) of food delivery jumped 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 42 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, aided largely by growth in volume, and mild growth in average order value (AOV) at 1-2 per cent. The company also broke even on an adjusted Ebitda basis during the quarter.
As temperatures soar across the country, amid searing heat wave, analysts see power demand hitting fresh record highs this year. The time, therefore, may be opportune to add related stocks on dips as higher demand boosts earnings visibility, they said. On April 18, India's electricity demand touched a new high of 216 gigawatts.
In the April-June period, bond yields rose by 30 bps.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
Stocks of gold jewellery retailers have been able to retain their sheen in 2023 despite volatile gold prices. Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, PC Jewellers, Thangamayil Jewellery, and Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ) have rallied 21-72 per cent so far since April as compared to a 13 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex index. The rally gained steam on the back of gold's 6 per cen
Business activity has fallen by a fourth of the pre-COVID levels due to lockdowns imposed by states to contain the spread of the second wave of COVID-19, Japanese brokerage Nomura said on Tuesday. However, it said the falling activity levels will have a muted economic impact and maintained its growth estimates for the year, saying the lockdowns present "downside risks". As of April 25, the Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) registered its steepest weekly fall in over a year of 8.5 percentage points to 75.9, which is 24 percentage points below pre-pandemic normal, the brokerage said in a statement.
With the O2C business outlook on the mend, the Street is also looking forward to news on RIL's proposal to sell up to 20 per cent of the O2C business to a strategic investor like Saudi Aramco.
Despite a firm improvement in the operational metrics of new-age companies during the January-March quarter (Q4FY23), analysts remain cautiously optimistic about their outlook. This is because the shares of these firms are still not risk free, as per analysts, given the companies are yet to make profits. Kranthi Bathini, director-equity strategy at WealthMills Securities says that while the sentiment around these stocks, which includes Paytm and Zomato, has turned positive, it remains to be seen how soon these firms turn profitable and improve margins.
Over the past three trading sessions, the stock of Cummins India has gained about nine per cent on strong January-March quarter (Q4) results and good near-term prospects. Its Q4 performance was led by a healthy 29 per cent revenue growth over the year ago quarter. This was largely on the back of a 33 per cent jump in domestic revenues while exports witnessed a growth of 17 per cent.
The recent sell-off in IT stocks such as Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has resulted in a sharp decline in the IT sector weighting in the Nifty50 index. The sector's weighting in the index has slipped to a five-year low of 12.2 per cent, down from the 17.7 per cent at the end of March 2022. The top IT companies - TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra - accounted for 13.6 per cent of the index at the end of March this year.
Housing sales have risen 49 per cent year-on-year to 83,220 units in the July-September period across eight major cities on pent up demand, despite rise in interest rates and property prices, according to PropTiger.com. Sales stood at 55,910 units in the same quarter last year. The sales have surpassed the pre-pandemic levels of 2019's Q3 (July - September), housing brokerage firm PropTiger.com said on Thursday in its quarterly report Real Insight Residential -- July-September 2022.
Logistic players have seen a sharp correction at the bourses over the past six months as intense competition from new-age-tech startups, higher freight rates, and weak macros dented listed players' growth outlook. Analysts warn that the emergence of tech-based startups could weigh on organised players' profit-pool, and can potentially erode their market share. Thus, a stock-specific strategy would be prudent at this juncture with focus on companies that are rapidly innovating and investing in technology.
With the merger between HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd complete, analysts said the next key monitorable for the Street would be successful resolution of merger-related hiccups, including employee-related churn and roll out of complete banking services across branches. At the bourses, they expect the stock to perform in-line with the benchmark indices in the near-term. "There's usually an initial period of consolidation after a merger as the entities work towards integration.
10 stocks which are most popular with brokerages right now and are expected to deliver maximum upside over the next 12 months.
10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
HDFC Bank Q4 review: HDFC Bank's January-March quarter (Q4) results, for financial year 2022-23 (FY23), brought no cheer to investors as elevated costs, and merger-related uncertainties continue to dent the sentiment. Moreover, analysts fear that merger-related costs may put pressure on margins and cost to income ratio in the near-term, while the return on equity could moderate owing to low leverage of the parent. Analysts, therefore, opine that the stock's re-rating may be some time away. "While the risk of a de-rating on a standalone basis appears to be quite low given that the business performance is holding up well, we believe a re-rating in the stock would happen as and when more clarity emerges on the smooth transition (merger)," said a report by Sharekhan.
